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Reload this Page Bush and Kerry Remain Tied Among Likely Voters in Florida
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Old 05-31-04   #1
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Bush and Kerry Remain Tied Among Likely Voters in Florida

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/fl/


American Research Group, Inc.


May 20, 2004
Bush and Kerry Remain Tied Among Likely Voters in Florida

George W. Bush and John Kerry remain tied among likely voters in Florida according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 47% of likely voters say they would vote for Bush if the presidential election were being held today and 46% say they would vote for Kerry. A total of 3% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 4% of likely voters are undecided. In a survey completed in April, Bush was at 46%, Kerry was at 45%, and Nader was at 3%

In a ballot question without Nader, 47% of likely voters say they would vote for Bush and 47% say they would vote for Kerry, with 6% of likely voters undecided. This is unchanged from April.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in Florida. Of the 600 likely voters, 40% are Republicans, 44% are Democrats, and 16% are not affiliated with any party or affiliated with a minor party. The interviews were conducted May 17 through 19, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Florida likely voters May 19 Apr 21 Mar 4

George W. Bush 47% 46% 44%
John Kerry 46% 45% 45%
Ralph Nader 3% 3% 4%
Undecided 4% 6% 7%



While Kerry leads Bush 47% to 40% among likely voters not affiliated with a major party, Bush runs stronger among Republicans than Kerry runs among Democrats and Bush is the choice among 11% of Democrats.

Party Republicans
(40%) Democrats
(44%) None/Minor
(16%)

George W. Bush 89% 11% 40%
John Kerry 7% 81% 47%
Ralph Nader 1% 3% 6%
Undecided 3% 5% 7%



In terms of awareness and favorability, all likely voters say they are aware of George W. Bush and 94% say they are aware of John Kerry.

A total of 48% of likely voters say they have a favorable opinion of Bush and 47% say they have an unfavorable opinion of Bush.

A total of 46% of likely voters say they have a favorable opinion of Kerry and 45% say they have an unfavorable opinion of Kerry.

A total of 72% of likely voters say they have an unfavorable opinion of Ralph Nader.

Awareness and favorability Aware Favorable Unfavorable Undecided

George W. Bush:
May 19 2004 100% 48% 47% 5%
Apr 21 2004 100% 48% 45% 7%
Mar 4 2004 100% 48% 47% 5%

John Kerry:
May 19 2004 94% 46% 45% 3%
Apr 21 2004 94% 44% 45% 5%
Mar 4 2004 93% 41% 41% 11%

Ralph Nader:
May 19 2004 93% 6% 72% 15%
Apr 21 2004 95% 8% 70% 17%
Mar 4 2004 95% 17% 53% 25%

A total of 89% of Republicans say they have a favorable opinion of Bush and 80% of Democrats say they have an unfavorable opinion of Bush.

A total of 81% of Democrats say they have a favorable opinion of Kerry and 89% of Republicans have an unfavorable opinion of Kerry.

A total of 80% of Republicans and 67% of Democrats have an unfavorable opinion of Nader.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

About this survey:

Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc.

Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely voters in Florida. Of the 600 likely voters, 40% are Republicans, 44% are Democrats, and 16% are not affiliated with any party or affiliated with a minor party.

Sample Dates: May 17-19, 2004

Margin of Error: Ī 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Question wording:

I'm going to read a list of names associated with running for president and I'd like you to tell me if you have ever heard of them before.

The first name is (READ FROM BELOW). Have you ever heard of (NAME) before? IF AWARE, ASK: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (NAME)? (NAMES ROTATED)

George W. Bush
John Kerry
Ralph Nader

If the election for president were being held today between George W. Bush, the Republican, John Kerry, the Democrat, and Ralph Nader, the Independent, for whom would you vote - Bush, Kerry, or Nader? (NAMES ROTATED)


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