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Join Date: Feb 2004 | The Vanishing Young Kerry Voter (latest News Week poll!) -
05-31-04
The Vanishing Young Kerry Voter
A new GENEXT poll shows Kerry losing support from young voters
Brian Snyder / Reuters
Despite artful stumping by daughter Vanessa (far left), John Kerry is losing ground with a key portion of his base
WEB EXCLUSIVE
By Jonathan Darman
Newsweek
Updated: 4:37 p.m. ET April 22, 2004April 22 - Sen. John Kerry, who once held a commanding, double-digit advantage over President George W. Bush among young Americans, now finds himself in a statistical dead heat with the president among voters aged 18-29, according to the latest NEWSWEEK/GENEXT poll. While Kerry currently leads Bush within the margin of error, 45 percent to 42 percent, back in February 56 percent of 18-29 year-olds said they supported the senator versus 42 percent who said they would vote for Bush.
The decline for Kerry among young voters comes as the candidate appears to be losing ground overall. An AP/Ipsos poll of registered voters taken at the time of the GENEXT poll showed Bush leading Kerry within the margin of error, 45 percent to 44 percent. Eight weeks ago, Kerry led Bush 48 percent to 45 percent in a NEWSWEEK poll.
Analysts attribute Kerry’s overall decline to a variety of factors including Bush’s aggressive $40 million advertising campaign in swing states and the perception that Kerry has been unable to switch his own general-election campaign into high gear. Even in the wake of damaging testimony before the 9/11 commission and an upswing in Iraqi insurgent violence that has drawn questions about Bush’s stewardship of foreign affairs, the president has continued to maintain a slight edge over Kerry in many national polls.
GENEXT POLL HIGHLIGHT | APRIL 22, 2004
If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
George W. Bush
42%
John Kerry
45%
Ralph Nader
11%
Clearly, some young voters have turned away from Kerry for the same reasons as older citizens. But the GENEXT poll indicates that the presumptive Democratic candidate’s strength among the youth vote has been disproportionately dissipated by the entrance of independent Ralph Nader into the presidential race. In the latest GENEXT poll, the consumer advocate earns 11 percent of the under-30 vote. While Nader’s showing is down 1 point from a month earlier, it still is nearly double the 6 percent of voters who said they would vote for him in the AP/Ipsos poll of all voters.
Nader says his main appeal lies with voters who the major political parties have previously turned off. And 29 percent of respondents in the GENEXT poll who said they were likely to vote for Nader said they wouldn’t vote at all if he had not entered the race. Still, 49 percent of GENEXT Nader voters said they would vote for Kerry if they didn’t vote for Nader, compared to only 20 percent who said they would vote for Bush.
Indeed, while some young voters may be moving away from Kerry, they’re not moving toward Bush. Even as Kerry dropped 11 points in the GENEXT poll from February to April, Bush only managed to increase 41 percent showing of two months ago by 1 percentage point.
On the issues, young-voter dissatisfaction with the president is stark: Fifty-three percent of 18-29 year-olds say they disapprove of Bush’s handling of foreign-policy issues and the war on terrorism, significantly more than the 43 percent of all registered voters who disapproved in the AP/Ipsos survey. On the homefront, 54 percent of young voters said they disapproved of Bush’s handling of the economy, mirroring Bush’s 53 percent disapproval rating on the economy among voters overall.
But young voters’ faltering approval of Kerry is particularly surprising if only because the senator has sometimes seemed willing to do everything short of appearing in a Jessica Simpson video in order to attract youth support. From the outset, the Kerry campaign has engaged in aggressive youth outreach. In the primaries, it flooded college campuses with an array of bright young things—Kerry’s own daughters, Vanessa and Alex; his stepson, Christopher Heinz, and celebrities like actor Scott Wolf and Blink-182 frontman Tom DeLonge.
Kerry himself has ratcheted up the effort since capturing the nomination, sitting down for an MTV “Choose or Lose” special and strutting around campaign stages with tunes from Bon Jovi and Coldplay reverberating through the air. Just last week, the candidate went on a national college tour drawing attention to his proposals for college tuition relief and national service.
While it’s possible this heavy wooing may stem Kerry’s slide among young voters, the GENEXT poll indicates that the candidate can’t even count on the support he currently holds: A substantial proportion, 30 percent, of 18-29-year-olds pledged to Kerry said they could change their mind before the November election while only 13 percent of young Bush voters said they might switch their vote.
For the NEWSWEEK/GENEXT Poll, Ipsos-Public Affairs interviewed 351 registered voters age 18 to 29, from April 5 to April 18. The margin of error is plus or minus 5.2 percentage points. References to poll data on registered voters of all ages are from an AP/Ipsos poll conducted April 5-7 on 758 registered voters. That margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
© 2004 Newsweek, Inc. http://msnbc.msn.com/id/4799451/site/newsweek/
This is great news! Young voters are learing the truth about Kerry's treason, and his plans to destroy America.
Four more years of Bush, coming right up!
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05-31-04
Mm-hm.
What plans to destroy america?
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05-31-04
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Originally Posted by Guy_Person Mm-hm.
What plans to destroy america? |
Turn our military over to UN control, ban guns, raise taxes, raise gas taxes, destroy our economy, destroy our health care system, cut defense spending to the bone, cut intelligence spending......
Aren't you familiar with Kerry's sorry record?
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05-31-04
Show me when and where he has supported a single one of those directives.
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05-31-04
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Originally Posted by Guy_Person Show me when and where he has supported a single one of those directives. | Turn our military over to UN control:
“I’m an internationalist. “I’d like to see our troops dispersed through the world only at the directive of the United Nations.”
John Kerry
Ban guns:
Kerry has a lifetime "F" rating from the NRA. He has voted against gun ownership every time he has had the chance.
raise taxes:
Kerry cast the deciding vote on the largest tax increase in history.
raise gas taxes:
Kerry has voted 11 times to raise gas taxes, and is on record wanting to raise it by .50 cents per gallon.
Need more?
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05-31-04
Now, show me how these are bad things.
No, wait, show me how these are plots against America?
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Last edited by Guy_Person : 05-31-04 at 20:48.
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05-31-04
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Originally Posted by Lawson Turn our military over to UN control:
“I’m an internationalist. “I’d like to see our troops dispersed through the world only at the directive of the United Nations.”
John Kerry | Link? Quote:
Ban guns:
Kerry has a lifetime "F" rating from the NRA. He has voted against gun ownership every time he has had the chance.
| The NRA, who'd love 6 year olds to run around with AK-47s [/sarcasm] Quote:
raise taxes:
Kerry cast the deciding vote on the largest tax increase in history.
| And led to the best economy in my lifetime. Quote:
raise gas taxes:
Kerry has voted 11 times to raise gas taxes, and is on record wanting to raise it by .50 cents per gallon.
| Links to the votes? and the .50 cents a gallon bit is an easy refutation: http://blog.johnkerry.com/dbunker/archives/001502.html Quote:
FACT: John Kerry has never sponsored or voted for a 50 cent gas tax increase. When Sen. Charles Robb introduced legislation in 1993 that phased in a 50-cent increase, John Kerry chose not to vote for or co-sponsor this bill. (S. 1068, Introduced 5/28/9 It’s George Bush who has broken his promise to lead the way to a sustainable energy policy. His refusal to stand up to his big oil contributors has contributed to the highest gas prices in history – an effective $245 tax increase on American families and commuters.
Kerry opposed a Dick Cheney plan that would have raised gas prices by $1.2 trillion and cut 400,000 jobs.
In 1986, then-Congressman Dick Cheney proposed a tax on oil that would have raised gasoline prices and laid 400,000 workers off. Despite this bill, the Bush-Cheney campaign claims that they are interested in lower gas prices and opposed to higher taxes.
Senator Kerry helped stop Cheney’s proposed gas price hike, co-sponsoring for a resolution in opposition to the plan. Even Cheney’s fellow Republican lawmakers opposed his gas price hike -- 15 Senators joined Kerry to sponsor a resolution in 1987 to stop Cheney’s bill.
Cheney Opposed Low Oil Prices
In October 1986, Cheney introduced legislation to create a new import tax that would have increased the price of oil and ultimately the price of gasoline by billions of dollars per year. On the House floor Cheney said “let us rid ourselves of the fiction that low oil prices are somehow good for the United States.” [Energy Security Policy Act of 1986, H.R.5667, introduced 10/9/86, 99th Congress 2nd Session, 132 Cong Rec E 1350, Vol. 132, No. 139; Inside Energy/with Federal Lands, 10/13/86]
Cheney Bill would Cost Consumers $1.2 Trillion
The Congressional Research Service, in coordination with staffers from the Senate Energy Committee, studied the effects of Cheney’s bill on consumers. The report states that if Cheney’s plan had been enacted in 1986 it would have cost consumers $1.2 trillion. [New York Times, 4/6/04]
Bill Would Have Led to Loss of 400,000 jobs
Senator John Heinz of Pennsylvania, a Republican, said in February 1987 that the proposals would add $1.3 billion per year to the energy costs of Pennsylvania consumers. He also cited a study done for a Federal Reserve Bank suggesting that a $5 per barrel fee would lead to the loss of 400,000 jobs nationwide and cause inflation to soar. [New York Times, 4/5/04; S.RES.97, introduced 02/03/87]
Kerry and 15 Senators from Both Parties Joined in Opposition to Cheney’s Bill
On February 3rd, 1987, John Kerry and 15 Senators cosponsored a resolution in opposition to import fees and taxes on oil, including Republican Senators John Heinz and Alphonse D’Amato. Senator Pell said that “the truth is that an oil import fee is not a good idea and would certainly not be painless for consumers. An oil import fee would impose heavy new costs on all who use oil and oil products in manufacturing and production. It would also impose higher costs on all who heat their homes with oil or use oil-generated electricity. In addition, by increasing the production costs of energy and raw materials, an oil import fee would make American manufacturers far less competitive in world markets—a situation certainly not tolerable with today's current trade imbalance. [S.RES.97, introduced, 2/3/87; 100th Congress 1st Session, Congressional Record Vol. 133 No. 16, S 1624]
Bush-Cheney Campaign Refuse to Acknowledge Cheney’s Call for Higher Taxes
When asked about Cheney’s bill to increase oil taxes, Scott Stanzel, a spokesman for the Bush-Cheney campaign, said that “President Bush and Vice President Cheney want to keep taxes low and keep the economy moving. They have proposed an energy plan that will provide for a stable, affordable and secure energy supply.”
While the Bush-Cheney campaign failed to acknowledge the higher tax and gas prices as a result of Cheney’s bill, Cheney’s office refused to comment about the bill. [New York Times, 4/5/04]
The Bush Administration is happy to use the gas tax for political purposes, but they are shamelessly misleading the American people about John Kerry’s record on cutting middle class taxes.
Here's what they're not telling you: George Bush and his Republican allies have NEVER ONCE supported lowering the gas tax on middle class families, despite the fact that Bush promised to during his 2000 campaign. Bush has submitted three budgets and passed two huge tax cuts, but the gas tax has not changed one penny under George Bush. Gas prices, on the other hand, have increased dramatically, reaching their highest level in history and taxing families by $24 billion this year alone. While George Bush campaigned on the issue, he has let the problem sit and fester so that consumers are left paying the bill. Instead of helping consumers who will pay $24 billion more for gas this year, Bush and Cheney are aiding oil companies’ record profits and increasing American dependence on foreign countries.
| Yeah, preferably truthful reasons.
Bismarck once said "Fools say they like to learn from their experiences, but I prefer to learn from the experience of others."
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05-31-04
kerry can't destroy america any worse than bush has...i'll vote nader too...simply because i think bush would destroy america, and there's something not right about kerry...
i simply don't want to waste my vote, i want the politicians to know that there is a thirty something happily married mother dissatisified with the way both want to run the country...
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05-31-04
That won't change anything Jordyn. Never has, never will. Politicians don't care about individuals, just groups of individuals.
I think 4 more years of Bush is the worst thing that can happen to this country. It's like choosing a bullet over a nuke. I'll take the bullet.
Bismarck once said "Fools say they like to learn from their experiences, but I prefer to learn from the experience of others."
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05-31-04
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Originally Posted by Jordyn kerry can't destroy america any worse than bush has...i'll vote nader too...simply because i think bush would destroy america, and there's something not right about kerry...
i simply don't want to waste my vote, i want the politicians to know that there is a thirty something happily married mother dissatisified with the way both want to run the country... |
Good, vote for Nader.
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Originally Posted by SirVLCIV That won't change anything Jordyn. Never has, never will. Politicians don't care about individuals, just groups of individuals.
I think 4 more years of Bush is the worst thing that can happen to this country. It's like choosing a bullet over a nuke. I'll take the bullet. | That's another good idea.
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05-31-04
i had faith in the legitimacy of american democracy once, bush demonstrated that sir may be correct...america isn't run by americans anymore, and i'm beginning to believe that all politicians care about are their own pockets...
sometimes it sucks being such an idealist...if i really thought my vote mattered, it'd go to kerry...
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Originally Posted by Jordyn i had faith in the legitimacy of american democracy once, bush demonstrated that sir may be correct...america isn't run by americans anymore, and i'm beginning to believe that all politicians care about are their own pockets...
sometimes it sucks being such an idealist...if i really thought my vote mattered, it'd go to kerry... |
Bush is the embodiment of democracy. He has spread democracy to the middle east, and has freed 50 million people. You should be proud of our great president!
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05-31-04
along with using his brothers state to manipulate, twist and steal the election...he won because the electorial college chose one of their own...not because people voted...because of...personal agendas...
he's so focused on the middle east, he's forgotten his fellow americans that don't have money to support him...or he just doesn't care...i haven't yet decided which.
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06-01-04
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Originally Posted by Jordyn along with using his brothers state to manipulate, twist and steal the election...he won because the electorial college chose one of their own...not because people voted...because of...personal agendas...
he's so focused on the middle east, he's forgotten his fellow americans that don't have money to support him...or he just doesn't care...i haven't yet decided which. |
He won in the electoral college becasue he earned more delegates, by the legal election process. The people voted for him, and for those electors. That's America.
He has given you the best economy since 1982, so you had better take advantage of it.
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Originally Posted by Lawson He won in the electoral college becasue he earned more delegates, by the legal election process. The people voted for him, and for those electors. That's America.
He has given you the best economy since 1982, so you had better take advantage of it. | Supreme Court appointee, not to mention the stolen election Florida. When 'black sounding' names don't get to vote...
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Originally Posted by SirVLCIV Supreme Court appointee, not to mention the stolen election Florida. When 'black sounding' names don't get to vote... |
You keep worrying about the last election, while we win in a landslide in this one. 
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