http://www.americanpolitics.com/20030606Hersh.html

How Bush Will Lose in 2004
by Mike Hersh

June 6, 2003 -- WASHINGTON (mikehersh.com) -- George W. Bush is not going to hold his popularity any more than his Daddy did and for the same reasons. The economy is choking for various reasons, and Bush's policies are making matters worse on a macro level while hurting American families.

There is only one way Bush can win, and that's by convincing most swing voters not to trust the Democrat to keep America safe. Once the Democrat crosses that threshold and assures enough of the swing voters he or she won't dissolve the military, most of them will reject failed Bushonomics in desperation to keep their jobs.

This is basic psych, hierarchy of needs stuff. When the economy seems to be going great, the party in power wins. It's not, and it won't be on Election Day. When the economy is faltering, the party in power needs a real trick to stay in power.

Bush -- really, his brain Karl Rove -- thinks Republicans can convince most swing voters electing a Democrat is a "suicide pact." Nixon did that to McGovern in 1972. LBJ did that to Goldwater in 1964. That doesn't happen much.

In 1992, enough people saw Bill Clinton wasn't going to endanger their lives, so they took a chance on rejecting Bush I for him (or Perot) -- and Bush I lost.

The same thing will happen in 2004 to Bush II.

It's simplistic even to talk of "swing voters." All the Democrat has to do is hold the states Al Gore carried -- not even including Florida -- and add one more. New Hampshire, West Virginia, Nevada -- any one state will do, including Florida. Tipping enough swing voters in even one of these swing states will beat Bush.

Running on this lousy economy, plagued by whatever scandals the media bothers to cover and voters bother to care about, trying in vain to put a white flag in the Democrat's hand, Bush will lose in 2004.
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I'm getting giddy in anticipation of Bush losing.