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03-23-04
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Originally Posted by SirVLCIV |
Ah, Business Employment Dynamics. It only goes through the second quarter of 2003, but there's still a discrepancy between BED and CES.
Hmm.
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03-23-04
According to BED, there were almost 4 million more jobs lost than gained from 2001 - mid2003.
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03-23-04
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Originally Posted by SirVLCIV WTF? Where'd you pull 2.8 million from? | Post 27, this thread.
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03-23-04
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Originally Posted by SirVLCIV According to BED, there were almost 4 million more jobs lost than gained from 2001 - mid2003. |
No, according to the BEA there are 1 million more jobs. You are ignoring the possibility of new businesses being formed.
Jobs then: 137,990,000
Jobs now: 138,566,000
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03-23-04
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Originally Posted by SirVLCIV Ah, Business Employment Dynamics. It only goes through the second quarter of 2003, but there's still a discrepancy between BED and CES.
Hmm. |
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03-23-04
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Originally Posted by Lawson No, according to the BEA there are 1 million more jobs. You are ignoring the possibility of new businesses being formed.
Jobs then: 137,990,000
Jobs now: 138,566,000 | Would you mind reading my post next time? I stated that there was a discrepancy. I don't know how to explain it.
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03-23-04
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Originally Posted by SirVLCIV State-by-state data show disappointing job growth widespread
As of January 2004, 36 states have failed to get back to their pre-recession employment levels. Furthermore, 49 states have not created enough jobs to keep up with the natural growth in the number of potential workers, as job growth has lagged the growth in working-age population since March 2001. As for the unemployed, 45 states have higher unemployment rates than when the recession began (see State data & organizations).
Unemployment measures understate job slack
The number of unemployed workers (currently 8.2 million) and the national unemployment rate of 5.6% in February 2004 do not adequately convey the true labor slack in the economy for several reasons. One major understatement is that the unemployment rate does not reflect the uniquely large 1.2% decline in labor force participation that has occurred since the current recession began in early 2001. This decline represents a stark contrast to the past three business cycles, when labor force participation actually grew by an average of 0.4% of the working-age population over similar lengths of time. Consequently, there is what can be called a "missing labor force" of 2,808,000 workers who might otherwise be in the actual labor force but have either dropped out entirely or failed to enter the labor market because of the lack of jobs. If the unemployment rate in February 2004 took into account this missing labor force, the unemployment rate would have been 7.4%, or 1.8% greater than the official rate of 5.6% (see chart below). http://jobwatch.org/ | Aha... seems like their 2,808,000 workers is fuzzy math, or they are using different numbers, but using BLS data, I came up with 2,851,000 workers who are either considered not in the labor force (due to having stopped looking, although they still want to work), and 676,000 who are considered new entrants and ARE considered unemployed in BLS numbers.
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03-23-04
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Originally Posted by SirVLCIV Would you mind reading my post next time? I stated that there was a discrepancy. I don't know how to explain it. |
I can explain it to you. People who have lost their jobs have started their own companies. There are also more people entering the work force, due to age demographics, and they are being hired at a greater rate than the people who have been laid off.
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03-23-04
I still want to see if that 3 million number means anything, or if it's just a meaningless number used by Democrats for rhetorical purposes.
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03-23-04
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Originally Posted by SirVLCIV Aha... seems like their 2,808,000 workers is fuzzy math, or they are using different numbers, but using BLS data, I came up with 2,851,000 workers who are either considered not in the labor force (due to having stopped looking, although they still want to work), and 676,000 who are considered new entrants and ARE considered unemployed in BLS numbers. | They have been more than replaced by new workers, and new companies.
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03-23-04
Still can't find the basis for the 3 million figure, but this seems to be an early case where it was used: http://www.house.gov/apps/list/press...mployment.html
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03-23-04
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Originally Posted by Lawson They have been more than replaced by new workers, and new companies. | Incorrect.
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Originally Posted by Lawson I can explain it to you. People who have lost their jobs have started their own companies. There are also more people entering the work force, due to age demographics, and they are being hired at a greater rate than the people who have been laid off. | So there's millions of these mystery companies in existence?
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03-23-04
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Originally Posted by SirVLCIV Incorrect. |
Jobs then: 137,990,000
Jobs now: 138,566,000
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03-23-04
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Originally Posted by SirVLCIV So there's millions of these mystery companies in existence? |
Not millions, but a large number.
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Originally Posted by Lawson I can explain it to you. People who have lost their jobs have started their own companies. There are also more people entering the work force, due to age demographics, and they are being hired at a greater rate than the people who have been laid off. | Not according to BLS data. The hiring rate has decreased from 3.2% to 2.4% from January, 2001 to December, 2003.
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03-23-04
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Originally Posted by Lawson Jobs then: 137,990,000
Jobs now: 138,566,000 | Do you insist on ignoring my last 5 posts in this thread? ANOTHER division of the BLS, which utilizes a different method of gathering data, has a net job loss of 4 million over the past 3 years. I'm trying to find out why these two methods differ by such a high number.
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03-23-04
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Originally Posted by SirVLCIV Do you insist on ignoring my last 5 posts in this thread? ANOTHER division of the BLS, which utilizes a different method of gathering data, has a net job loss of 4 million over the past 3 years. I'm trying to find out why these two methods differ by such a high number. |
You are using a faulty system. The new jobs are not counted in either of those reports, as they are new jobs.
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