Sadly, that might be the case (well, except for the fall-out and possibility of nuclear winter). The Middle East seems like its been a hotbed of war and antagonism ever since monotheism caught on...

Besides, if we're smart about it, we'd never miss the oil. Just switch everything over to bio-diesel. Then the American government wouldn't have to pay farmers not to grow crops, the air quality would improve, and agriculture would again be the backbone of society.